Buddy of an architect: Adrien Brody and Guy Pearce in ‘The Brutalist’.
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OSCARS 2025: PREVIEW

This could be it, folks.

After several very bumpy years of the Oscars straining for relevance and ratings the outcome of this year’s hound race could be a make-or-break event.

In the best-case scenario, papal drama Conclave – by far the best film in the field – will enjoy a comprehensive sweep of best film, actor, editing, costumes and adapted screenplay.

Oddly, there’s no nod for Conclave director Edward Berger. It’s a recurring anomaly at the Oscars for the director of a Best Film nominee to be overlooked, only this year the instance is dwarfed by some glaring flubs that suggest the soiree has lost its ability to read the room.

And the timing couldn’t be worse.

In November the good people of America re-elected Donald Trump as their president, ushering in a suite of values that run counter to the “progressive” ones that dominated the Biden years.

This included a ferocious pushback against the idea that men who had “transitioned” to present as women – aka “trans women” – were, in fact, legitimately female.

No, says the new admin adamantly. Trans women are men.

This meant an end to “trans women” competing in female sports. No more men in women’s sports, Trump et al declared. He ran on it and the American populace agreed.

Defying this, we have Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón, a trans-woman, for Emilia Pérez.

Though Gascón is very unlikely to win, the nomination seems designed to openly grind against the new Trump Times dictate that trans women are men.

Maintaining the up-yours theme, there’s also a Best Actor nomination for Sebastian Stan’s very good impersonation of Young Trump in The Apprentice. Again, he’s unlikely to win – but what fun if he did?

Admirable as it is to thumb one’s nose at authority, these gestures have a hollow ring that is deafening.

The relentless anti-Trump pile on by pro-Kamala celebrities during the election campaign resoundingly confirmed what many had long believed – that the vast majority of people place zero value on the political opinions of celebrities, especially those in left-leaning Hollywood.

Yet here we have Oscar pumping fists of impotent rage against the very popular Trump team. At a time when the Oscars ceremony is struggling for viewers and is increasingly out-of-touch with middle America – the oxygen of the movie business – it’s not, as they say, very good optics.

And this is before we hear any Trump-bashing quips and commentary from presenters and winners. Prayers that they are either kept to a minimum or, far more importantly, are funny.

Last year’s shebang indicated a long overdue course correction. Here’s hoping they don’t blow it.

Now, a quick skate-through the likely winners and losers.

Though The Brutalist has enjoyed a charmed run in the media, winning awards and critical acclaim all over the shop, its box office has been tepid, taking a meagre $US37 million.

Does Oscar really want to again shower statuettes on yet another film so few people have seen?

Also, though it certainly looks good, the film’s two-part, three-and-a-half hour duration makes it feel not like an old-style epic – despite the claims from director Brady Corbet – but like a viewing experience better suited for the couch.

Unfortunately, none of this is likely to upset the movie’s pending Best Film and Best Director wins over Jacques Audiard and Emilia Pérez, the most deliberately misunderstood film this year, and arguably more Catholic and conservative than Conclave. (Here’s the review.)

That Emilia’s box office is less than half that of The Brutalist perversely boosts its chances of winning, though such an event would render Oscar even more out-of-touch with popular taste than it already is. It’s worth noting the discrepancy on Rotten Tomatoes between the film’s high critical rating and its very low popular score – 72% vs 16%.

For the record, to date Conclave has taken more than $100m. Not bad for a film consisting largely of priests talking in rooms.)

Adrien Brody is tipped to win Best Actor for The Brutalist, though the deserving winner would be Ralph Fiennes for his astounding, understated work in Conclave.

It Boy Timothée Chalamet is very good as the young Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown though, to be honest, having all that reference material to draw upon for a performance surely lowers the degree of difficulty.

That said, Edward Norton absolutely deserves Best Supporting Actor for his portrayal of Dylan mentor Pete Seeger. It’ll be a hearty win over a strong array of rivals and will also serve as a de facto Lifetime Achievement Award. He’ll win over the sturdy work from the prolific Guy Pearce as the industrialist in The Brutalist.

Also triumphing in an especially strong line-up will be Demi Moore for The Substance (your humble scribe’s fave of 2024).

Or at least she should, if it weren’t for Anora lead Mikey Madison emerging as a late favourite. To her credit, the research she put into her role certainly showed, particularly in those scenes where she gives the Russian goons what for.

So great to see Fernanda Torres nommed for her outstanding work in the Brazilian film I’m Still Here, also up for Best Film and Best International Film. It won’t win any but, as is often the case, the exposure gained via nominations is win enough.

Zoe Saldaña’s winning streak will continue when she takes a well-deserved Best Supporting Actress for Emilia Pérez. Isabella Rossellini’s presence in Conclave was strong but too brief to justify a win – though they should have struck a deal to give it to her in exchange for her singing Blue Velvet to the world.

Sad that Margaret Qualley’s fine work in The Substance was left out – still, how hard could it have been for a beautiful young woman to play a beautiful young woman who turns into a grotesque, blood-vomiting monster?

Elsewhere: Best Animated Feature will go to Inside Out 2 to celebrate Disney’s slow, steady return back to its senses (though it’d be a pleasant shock to see Adam Elliot win for Memoir of a Snail); thanks to the inexplicable absence of Conclave, Best Cinematography will go to Greig Fraser for Dune: Part Two.

Though it should go to Conclave, Best Editing will go to Wicked, which will also take Makeup & Hair, Original Music (sorry, Emilia), Sound and Production Design (sorry, Dune, on both counts).

The Brutalist will take Best Original Screenplay, though it should go to Anora (kudos to Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain); Best Visual Effects will go to Dune 2, though it should go to Better Man for what they did with that chimp. Phenomenal work.

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